Amaxabiso okuthumela kwiMigca emininzi ayaqhubeka nokunyuka!

Kule sizini yesiqhelo yokuthunyelwa kwempahla, iindawo ezixineneyo zokuthunyelwa kwempahla, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso empahla, kunye nexesha elinamandla lokuthunyelwa kwempahla kube ngamazwi aphambili kwimarike. Idatha ekhutshwe yiShanghai Shipping Exchange ibonisa ukuba ukususela ekupheleni kukaMatshi 2024 ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, izinga lokuthunyelwa kwempahla ukusuka eShanghai Port ukuya kwimarike yezibuko esisiseko eMzantsi Melika linyuke nge-95.88%, kwaye izinga lokuthunyelwa kwempahla ukusuka eShanghai Port ukuya kwimarike yezibuko esisiseko eYurophu linyuke nge-43.88%.

Abantu abangaphakathi kushishino bahlalutya ukuba izinto ezifana nokuphuculwa kwemfuno yemarike eYurophu nase-United States kunye nengxabano ende eLwandle Olubomvu zezona zizathu ziphambili zokunyuka kwamaxabiso empahla ngoku. Ngokufika kwexesha lesiqhelo lokuthunyelwa kwempahla, amaxabiso okuthunyelwa kweekhonteyina anokuqhubeka enyuka kwixesha elizayo.

Iindleko zokuthumela ngenqanawa zaseYurophu zonyuke ngaphezulu kwama-20% ngeveki

Ukususela ekuqaleni kuka-Epreli 2024, iShanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index ekhutshwe yiShanghai Shipping Exchange iqhubekile nokunyuka. Idatha ekhutshwe ngoMeyi 10 ibonise ukuba iShanghai's comprehensive ferture rate index yayingama-2305.79 amanqaku, ukunyuka kwe-18.8% ukusuka kwiveki ephelileyo, ukunyuka kwe-33.21% ukusuka kuma-1730.98 amanqaku ngoMatshi 29, kunye nokunyuka kwe-33.21% ukusuka kuma-1730.98 amanqaku ngoMatshi 29, okwakuphezulu kunoko ngoNovemba 2023 ngaphambi kokuqhambuka kwengxaki yoLwandle oluBomvu. Ukunyuka kwe-132.16%.

Phakathi kwazo, iindlela eziya eMzantsi Melika naseYurophu zifumene ukonyuka okuphezulu. Izinga lempahla (iindleko zokuthutha ulwandle kunye neentlawulo zokuthutha ulwandle) ezithunyelwe ngaphandle kweShanghai Port ukuya kwimarike yezibuko esisiseko yaseMzantsi Melika yi-US$5,461/TEU (isikhongozeli esinobude obuziimitha ezingama-20, esaziwa ngokuba yi-TEU), ukonyuka kwe-18.1% kwixesha elidlulileyo kunye nokunyuka kwe-95.88% ukusuka ekupheleni kukaMatshi. Izinga lempahla (iindleko zokuthutha kunye neentlawulo zokuthutha) ezithunyelwe ngaphandle kweShanghai Port ukuya kwimarike yezibuko esisiseko yaseYurophu yi-US$2,869/TEU, ukonyuka okukhulu kwe-24.7% ukusuka kwiveki ephelileyo, ukonyuka kwe-43.88% ukusuka ekupheleni kukaMatshi, kunye nokunyuka kwe-305.8% ukusuka ngoNovemba 2023.

Umntu ophethe ishishini lokuhambisa impahla kwi-Yunqunar Logistics Technology Group, umboneleli weenkonzo zedijithali zehlabathi, iYunqunar Logistics Technology Group (ebizwa ngokuba yi "Yunqunar"), uthe kudliwanondlebe neentatheli ukuba ukususela ekupheleni kuka-Epreli kulo nyaka, kunokuvakala ukuba ukuthunyelwa kwezinto eziya eLatin America, eYurophu, eMntla Melika, kunye namaxabiso eempahla eziya kwimizila eseMbindi Mpuma, eIndiya nasePakistan anyukile, kwaye ukwanda kuye kwabonakala ngakumbi ngoMeyi.

Idatha ekhutshwe yiDrewry, iarhente yophando nokubonisana ngenqanawa, ngoMeyi 10 ikwabonise ukuba iDrewry World Container Index (WCI) inyuke yaya kwi-$3,159/FEU (isikhongozeli esinobude obuziimitha ezingama-40) kule veki (ukusukela ngoMeyi 9), nto leyo ehambelana nowama-2022. Inyuke ngama-81% xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo kwaye yayiphezulu nge-122% kunenqanaba eliqhelekileyo le-US $1,420/FEU ngaphambi kobhubhane ngo-2019.

Kutshanje, iinkampani ezininzi zokuthutha impahla, kuquka iMediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), iMaersk, iCMA CGM, kunye neHapag-Lloyd, zibhengeze ukunyuka kwamaxabiso. Umzekelo, thabatha iCMA CGM. Ekupheleni kuka-Epreli, iCMA CGM ibhengeze ukuba ukususela nge-15 kaMeyi, iza kulungisa imigangatho emitsha yeFAK (Freight All Kinds) yendlela yaseAsia-Northern Europe ukuya kwi-US$2,700/TEU kunye ne-US$5,000/FEU. Ngaphambili, yayinyuke nge-US$500/TEU kunye ne-US$1,000/FEU; ngoMeyi 10, iCMA CGM ibhengeze ukuba ukususela nge-1 kaJuni, iza kunyusa izinga leFAK kwimithwalo ethunyelwa ukusuka eAsia ukuya kumazibuko aseNordic. Lo mgangatho mtsha uphezulu njenge-US$6,000/FEU. Kwakhona inyuke nge-$1,000/FEU.

UKe Wensheng, i-CEO yenkampani enkulu yokuthutha impahla kwihlabathi iMaersk, uthe kwingxoxo yakutshanje yenkomfa ukuba umthamo wempahla kwiindlela zaseYurophu zaseMaersk unyuke nge-9%, ikakhulu ngenxa yemfuno enamandla evela kubathumeli baseYurophu yokugcwalisa iimpahla. Nangona kunjalo, ingxaki yendawo encinci nayo ivele, kwaye uninzi lwabathumeli kufuneka bahlawule amaxabiso aphezulu empahla ukuze baphephe ukulibaziseka kwempahla.

Ngelixa amaxabiso okuthunyelwa kwempahla enyuka, amaxabiso oololiwe bokuthutha impahla baseTshayina-Yurophu nawo ayanda. Umphathi wempahla ophethe oololiwe bokuthutha impahla baseTshayina-Yurophu uxelele iintatheli ukuba imfuno yangoku yokuthutha kwempahla koololiwe bokuthutha impahla baseTshayina-Yurophu inyuke kakhulu, kwaye amaxabiso okuthutha kwempahla kwezinye iindlela anyuke nge-US$200-300, kwaye kusenokwenzeka ukuba aqhubeke enyuka kwixesha elizayo. “Ixabiso lokuthutha impahla elwandle linyukile, kwaye indawo yokugcina impahla kunye nexesha elifanelekileyo azinakwanelisa imfuno yabathengi, nto leyo ebangela ukuba ezinye iimpahla zidluliselwe kwiimpahla zikaloliwe. Nangona kunjalo, amandla okuthutha oololiwe anqongophele, kwaye imfuno yendawo yokuthutha inyuke kakhulu kwixesha elifutshane, nto leyo ngokuqinisekileyo eya kuchaphazela amaxabiso okuthutha.”

Ingxaki yokunqongophala kwezikhongozeli iyabuya

“Nokuba kukuthunyelwa kwempahla okanye uloliwe, kukho ukunqongophala kweekhonteyina. Kwezinye iindawo, akunakwenzeka uku-odola iibhokisi. Ixabiso lokuqesha iikhonteyina kwimarike likhulu kunokunyuka kwamaxabiso empahla.” Omnye umntu osebenza kwishishini leekhonteyina eGuangdong uxelele iintatheli.

Umzekelo, uthe iindleko zokusebenzisa i-40HQ (isikhongozeli esifikelela kwiimitha ezingama-40 ukuphakama) kwindlela ephakathi kweTshayina neYurophu yayiyi-US$500-600 kunyaka ophelileyo, nto leyo enyuke yaya kwi-US$1,000-1,200 ngoJanuwari kulo nyaka. Ngoku inyuke yaya kutsho kwi-US$1,500, kwaye idlula kwi-US$2,000 kwezinye iindawo.

Ingcali yokuthutha impahla eShanghai Port ikwaxelele iintatheli ukuba ezinye iiyadi zaphesheya kwezilwandle ngoku zizele ziikhonteyina, kwaye kukho ukunqongophala okukhulu kweekhonteyina eTshayina. Ixabiso leebhokisi ezingenanto eShanghai naseDuisburg, eJamani, linyukile ukusuka kwi-US$1,450 ngoMatshi ukuya kwi-US$1,900 yangoku.

Umntu ophethe ishishini lokuthutha impahla laseYunqunar elikhankanyiweyo apha ngasentla uthe isizathu esibalulekileyo sokunyuka kweentlawulo zokuqeshisa iikhonteyina kukuba ngenxa yengxabano eLwandle oluBomvu, inani elikhulu labanini beenqanawa lajika laya eCape of Good Hope, nto leyo eyabangela ukuba ukujikeleza kweekhonteyina kube ngaphezulu kweeveki ezi-2-3 kunexesha eliqhelekileyo, nto leyo eyabangela ukuba iikhonteyina zingenanto. Ulwelo luyehla.

Iindlela ezisetyenziswa kwimarike yokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwihlabathi liphela (ekuqaleni ukuya phakathi kuMeyi) ezikhutshwe yiDexun Logistics ngoMeyi 9 zibonise ukuba emva kweholide yeMay Day, imeko iyonke yokunikezelwa kwempahla kwiikhonteyina ayiphucukanga kakhulu. Kukho amanqanaba ahlukeneyo okunqongophala kweekhonteyina, ingakumbi iikhonteyina ezinkulu nezinde, kwaye ezinye iinkampani zokuthumela impahla ziyaqhubeka nokuqinisa ulawulo lokusetyenziswa kweekhonteyina kwiindlela zaseLatin America. Iikhonteyina ezintsha ezenziwe eTshayina zibhukishwe ngaphambi kokuphela kukaJuni.

Ngowama-2021, xa yayichatshazelwe yi-COVID-19, imakethi yorhwebo lwangaphandle "yaqala yehla yaza yaphakama", kwaye uthotho lwezinto ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe lwahlangabezana nothotho lweemeko ezingalindelekanga ezingalindelekanga. Ukuhamba kweekhonteyina ezisasazeke kwihlabathi liphela akulunganga, kwaye ukusasazwa kweekhonteyina kwihlabathi liphela akulunganga kakhulu. Inani elikhulu leekhonteyina ezingenanto zisemva eMelika, eYurophu, eOstreliya nakwezinye iindawo, kwaye ilizwe lam alinazo izikhonteyina zokuthumela ngaphandle. Ke ngoko, iinkampani zeekhonteyina zigcwele iiodolo kwaye zinamandla okuvelisa apheleleyo. Kwakungekho de kwaba sekupheleni kuka-2021 apho ukunqongophala kweebhokisi kwancipha kancinci kancinci.

Ngenxa yokuphucuka kokunikezelwa kweekhonteyina kunye nokubuyiselwa kokusebenza kakuhle kwimarike yokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwihlabathi liphela, bekukho ukusilela okukhulu kweekhonteyina ezingenanto kwimarike yasekhaya ukususela ngo-2022 ukuya ku-2023, de kwaba nokunqongophala kweekhonteyina kwakhona kulo nyaka.

Amaxabiso eempahla angaqhubeka enyuka

Ngokuphathelele izizathu zokunyuka okukhulu kwamaxabiso empahla kutshanje, umntu ophethe ishishini lokuhambisa impahla le-YQN elikhankanyiweyo apha ngasentla uhlalutye kwiintatheli ukuba okokuqala, i-United States ngokusisiseko igqibe isigaba sokususa impahla yaza yangena kwinqanaba lokubuyisela impahla. Inqanaba lomthamo wothutho lomzila we-trans-Pacific liye labuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo, nto leyo eye yanyusa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso empahla. Okwesibini, ukuze kuthintelwe uhlengahlengiso olunokwenzeka lwerhafu yi-United States, iinkampani eziya kwimarike yase-US ziye zasebenzisa ithuba lemarike yaseLatin America, kubandakanya ishishini lokuvelisa iimoto, ishishini leziseko zophuhliso, njl.njl., kwaye zidlulisele imigca yazo yemveliso kwiLatin America, nto leyo ebangele ukwanda okukhulu kwemfuno yeendlela zaseLatin America. Iinkampani ezininzi zokuthumela impahla eziya eMexico zongezwa ukuhlangabezana nemfuno ekhulayo. Okwesithathu, imeko kuLwandle oluBomvu ibangele ukunqongophala kwezixhobo kwiindlela zaseYurophu. Ukusuka kwiindawo zokuthumela impahla ukuya kwiikhonteyina ezingenanto, amazinga empahla aseYurophu nawo ayanyuka. Okwesine, ixesha eliphezulu lorhwebo lwemveli lwamazwe ngamazwe lingaphambi kweminyaka edlulileyo. Ngokwesiqhelo uJuni unyaka ngamnye ungena kwixesha lokuthengisa ehlotyeni phesheya, kwaye amazinga empahla aya kunyuka ngokufanelekileyo. Amaxabiso okuthutha impahla kulo nyaka anyuke kwinyanga enye ngaphambili kunakwiminyaka edlulileyo, nto leyo ethetha ukuba ixesha lokuthengisa elicokisekileyo kulo nyaka lifikile kwangethuba.

I-Zheshang Securities ikhuphe ingxelo yophando ngomhla we-11 kuCanzibe enesihloko esithi “Ungayibona njani ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuthunyelwa kweekhonteyina kutshanje okuchaseneyo?” Ithe ingxabano ende kuLwandle oluBomvu ikhokelele kwiingxaki zekhonkco lokuhambisa impahla. Kwelinye icala, ukujika kweenqanawa kukhokelele ekwandeni kwemigama yokuthumela impahla. Kwelinye icala, ukwehla kokusebenza kakuhle kwenqanawa kukhokelele ekutshintsheni kweekhonteyina kwiindawo zokungenisa impahla, nto leyo eyonyusa ngakumbi uxinzelelo lwekhonkco lokuhambisa impahla. Ukongeza, umda wecala lemfuno uyaphucuka, idatha yezoqoqosho eYurophu nase-United States iyaphucuka kancinci, kwaye kunye nolindelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso okuthutha impahla kwixesha eliphezulu, abanini bempahla baqokelela imali kwangaphambili. Ngaphezu koko, umgca wase-US ungene kwixesha elibalulekileyo lokusayina izivumelwano zexesha elide, kwaye iinkampani zokuhambisa impahla zinesizathu sokunyusa amaxabiso.

Kwangaxeshanye, ingxelo yophando ikholelwa ukuba ipateni yoxinzelelo oluphezulu kunye nentsebenziswano kushishino lokuthumela iikhonteyina zenze amandla okunyusa amaxabiso. I-Zheshang Securities ithe iinkampani zorhwebo lwangaphandle lweekhonteyina zinezinga eliphezulu loxinzelelo. Ukusukela nge-10 kaMeyi 2024, iinkampani ezilishumi eziphezulu zeekhonteyina zibambe i-84.2% yamandla othutho. Ukongeza, kuye kwenziwa ubudlelwane kushishino kunye nentsebenziswano phakathi kweenkampani. Kwelinye icala, kwimeko yokubonelela nokufunwa okuwohlokayo, kuyanceda ukunciphisa ukhuphiswano olubi lwamaxabiso ngokumisa ukuhamba ngeenqanawa kunye nokulawula amandla othutho. Kwelinye icala, kwimeko yokuphucula ubudlelwane bokubonelela nokufunwa, kulindeleke ukuba kufikelele kumazinga aphezulu okuthutha ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso adibeneyo.

Ukususela ngoNovemba ka-2023, imikhosi yaseYemen yamaHouthi ibisoloko ihlasela iinqanawa kuLwandle oluBomvu nakumanzi akufutshane. Iinkampani ezinkulu zokuthutha imithwalo kwihlabathi liphela azizange zibe nandlela imbi ngaphandle kokumisa ukuhamba kweenqanawa zazo zemithwalo kuLwandle oluBomvu nakumanzi akufutshane kwaye zitshintshe iindlela zazo ezijikeleze iCape of Good Hope eAfrika. Kulo nyaka, imeko kuLwandle oluBomvu isaqhubeka nokukhula, kwaye imithambo yokuthutha ivaliwe, ingakumbi uthungelwano lokuhambisa impahla lwaseAsia-Yurophu, oluchaphazeleke kakhulu.

Ngokuphathelele indlela eza kwenzeka ngayo imarike yokuthunyelwa kweekhonteyina kwixesha elizayo, iDexun Logistics ithe ngenxa yemeko yangoku, amaxabiso okuthunyelwa kwempahla aza kuhlala eqinile kwixesha elizayo, kwaye iinkampani zokuthumela impahla sele zicwangcisa umjikelo omtsha wokonyuswa kwamaxabiso okuthunyelwa kwempahla.

“Amaxabiso okuthutha iikhonteyina aza kuqhubeka enyuka kwixesha elizayo. Okokuqala, ixesha lokuthengisa eliphambili kwamanye amazwe lisaqhubeka, kwaye iiOlimpiki ziza kubanjelwa eYurophu ngoJulayi kulo nyaka, nto leyo enokunyusa amazinga okuthutha; okwesibini, ukususwa kweempahla eYurophu nase-United States kuphelile, kwaye intengiso yasekhaya e-United States ikwaphakamisa rhoqo amathemba ayo kuphuhliso lweshishini lokuthengisa lelizwe. Ngenxa yokunyuka kwemfuno kunye nobunzima bokuthunyelwa kweempahla, amaxabiso okuthutha kulindeleke ukuba aqhubeke enyuka kwixesha elifutshane,” utshilo umthombo we-Yunqunar okhankanywe apha ngasentla.