Kweli xesha lokungabikho kwesiqhelo lokuthumela ngenqanawa, iindawo ezixineneyo zothutho, amaxabiso anyukayo omthwalo, kunye nexesha eliqinileyo elingekhoyo libe ngamagama aphambili kwintengiso.Idatha ekhutshwe yi-Shanghai Shipping Exchange ibonisa ukuba ukususela ekupheleni kuka-Matshi 2024 ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, izinga lomthwalo ukusuka e-Shanghai Port ukuya kwi-market ye-port esisiseko eMzantsi Melika linyuke nge-95.88%, kwaye izinga lomthwalo ukusuka e-Shanghai Port ukuya kwi-port esisiseko. imarike eYurophu inyuke nge-43.88%.
Abantu abangaphakathi kwimizi-mveliso bahlalutya ukuba izinto ezinjengokuphuculwa kweemfuno zentengiso eYurophu naseUnited States kunye nongquzulwano oluthabatha ixesha elide kuLwandle Olubomvu zezona zizathu zokunyuka kwamaxabiso empahla.Ngokufika kwexesha lenqanawa eliphakamileyo lesiqhelo, amaxabiso enqanawa anokuqhubeka nokunyuka kwixesha elizayo.
Iindleko zokuthumela ngenqanawa eYurophu zinyuke ngaphezu kwe-20% ngeveki
Ukusukela ekuqaleni kuka-Epreli ka-2024, i-Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index ekhutshwe yi-Shanghai Shipping Exchange iqhubekile nokunyuka.Idatha ekhutshwe ngoMeyi 10 ibonise ukuba i-Shanghai ye-container ye-container ye-container yokuthunyelwa kwempahla ebanzi yayiyi-2305.79 amanqaku, ukwanda kwe-18.8% ukusuka kwiveki edlulileyo, ukunyuka kwe-33.21% ukusuka kwi-1730.98 amanqaku ngo-Matshi 29, kunye nokwanda kwe-33.21% ukusuka kumanqaku angama-1730.98 kumanqaku angama-1730.98. I-29 kaMatshi, eyayiphezulu kunaleyo ngoNovemba 2023 ngaphambi kokuqhambuka kwengxaki yoLwandle oluBomvu.Ukunyuka nge-132.16%.
Phakathi kwazo, iindlela eziya eMzantsi Melika naseYurophu zafumana ukonyuka okuphezulu.Izinga lothutho (impahla eyongezelelweyo elwandle kunye nempahla eyongeziweyo elwandle) ethunyelwa ngaphandle isuka kwizibuko laseShanghai ukuya kwimarike esisiseko yezibuko laseMzantsi Melika yi-US$5,461/TEU (isikhongozeli esinobude obuziimitha ezingama-20, ekwaziwa ngokuba yi-TEU), ukonyuka nge-18.1% ukusuka kwixesha langaphambili kunye nokunyuka kwama-95.88% ukusuka ekupheleni kukaMatshi.Izinga lomthwalo (ukuthunyelwa kunye neentlawulo zokuthumela ngenqanawa) ezithunyelwa ngaphandle ukusuka eShanghai Port ukuya kwimarike yezibuko yaseYurophu esisiseko yi-US $ 2,869/TEU, ukunyuka okubukhali kwe-24.7% ukusuka kwiveki ephelileyo, ukwanda kwe-43.88% ukusuka ekupheleni kukaMatshi, kunye nokunyuka ye-305.8% ukususela ngoNovemba wama-2023.
Umntu ophethe ishishini lothutho lomnikezeli wenkonzo yedijithali yehlabathi uYunqunar Logistics Technology Group (emva koko ebizwa ngokuba yi "Yunqunar") uthe kudliwanondlebe neentatheli ukuba ukuqala ngo-Epreli ka-Epreli kulo nyaka, kunokuvakala ngathi ukuthunyelwa kwe-Latin. IMerika, iYurophu, uMntla Merika, kunye namaxabiso oThutho kwiindlela ezikuMbindi Mpuma, eIndiya nasePakistan anyukile, yaye ukwanda kuye kwabonakala ngakumbi ngoMeyi.
Idatha ekhutshwe nguDrewry, uphando lokuthumela kunye ne-arhente yokubonisana, ngoMeyi 10 nayo yabonisa ukuba i-Drewry World Container Index (WCI) yenyuka yaya kwi-$ 3,159 / FEU (isitya esinobude beenyawo ze-40) kule veki (ngomhla we-9 kaMeyi), leyo iyahambelana ne-2022 Inyuke nge-81% xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elifanayo kulo nyaka uphelileyo kwaye yayiyi-122% ephezulu kunomgangatho ophakathi we-US $ 1,420 / FEU ngaphambi kobhubhane ngo-2019.
Kutshanje, iinkampani ezininzi zeenqanawa, kubandakanya iMeditera Shipping Company (MSC), iMaersk, CMA CGM, kunye neHapag-Lloyd, zibhengeze ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.Thatha iCMA CGM njengomzekelo.Ekupheleni kuka-Epreli, i-CMA CGM yazisa ukuba ukususela ngoMeyi 15, iya kulungelelanisa imigangatho emitsha ye-FAK (Freight All Type) ye-Asia-Northern Europe indlela ukuya kwi-US $ 2,700 / TEU kunye ne-US $ 5,000 / FEU.Ngaphambili, baye banda nge-US $ 500 / TEU kunye ne-US $ 1,000 / FEU;ngoMeyi 10, CMA CGM wabhengeza ukuba ukususela ngoJuni 1, iya kwandisa izinga FAK imithwalo ngenqanawa ukusuka Asia ukuya kumazibuko Nordic.Umgangatho omtsha uphezulu njenge-US $ 6,000 / FEU.Kwakhona Inyuswe nge $1,000/FEU.
U-Ke Wensheng, i-CEO ye-Maersk enkulu yeenqanawa zehlabathi, uthe kwinkomfa yamva nje ukuba umthamo wemithwalo kwiindlela zaseYurophu zaseMaersk unyuke nge-9%, ngenxa yemfuno emandla yabarhwebi baseYurophu yokuzalisa uluhlu lwempahla.Nangona kunjalo, ingxaki yendawo exineneyo iye yavela, kwaye abahambisi benqanawa abaninzi kufuneka bahlawule amaxabiso aphezulu omthwalo ukuze baphephe ukulibaziseka kwempahla.
Ngelixa amaxabiso enqanawa enyuka, amaxabiso kaloliwe wempahla eTshayina-Europe nawo ayenyuka.Umthuthi wempahla ophethe i-China-Europe yokuthutha oololiwe uxelele iintatheli ukuba imfuno yangoku yokuthutha i-China-Europe yokuthutha oololiwe inyuke kakhulu, kwaye amaxabiso omthwalo kwimizila ethile anyuke nge-US $ 200-300, kwaye kusenokwenzeka ukuba aqhubeke nokunyuka. ngelixa elizayo.“Ixabiso lokuthuthwa elwandle linyukile, kwaye indawo yokugcina impahla kunye nexesha elifanelekileyo alinako ukuhlangabezana nemfuno yabathengi, nto leyo ebangela ukuba ezinye iimpahla zidluliselwe kwiinqanawa zikaloliwe.Nangona kunjalo, umthamo wezothutho kaloliwe ulinganiselwe, kwaye imfuno yendawo yokuthumela inyuke kakhulu kwixesha elifutshane, eliya kuchaphazela amaxabiso omthwalo.
Iimbuyekezo zokunqongophala komgqomo
“Enoba kukuhamba ngenqanawa okanye ngololiwe, kukho ukunqongophala kweekhonteyina.Kwezinye iindawo, akunakwenzeka uku-odola iibhokisi.Iindleko zokurenta iikhonteyina emarikeni zikhulu kunokwenyuka kwamaxabiso othutho.”Umntu okwishishini leekhonteyina eGuangdong uxelele iintatheli.
Ngokomzekelo, wathi iindleko zokusebenzisa i-40HQ (i-container ye-40-foot-high) kwindlela yase-China-Yurophu yayiyi-US $ 500-600 kunyaka odlulileyo, eyanyuka kwi-US $ 1,000-1,200 ngoJanuwari kulo nyaka.Ngoku inyuke yaya kutsho ngaphezulu kwe-US$1,500, kwaye idlula i-US$2,000 kwezinye iindawo.
Umthuthi wemithwalo kwizibuko laseShanghai uxelele iintatheli ukuba ezinye iiyadi zaphesheya ngoku zigcwele imigqomo, kwaye kukho ukunqongophala okukhulu kwee-container e-China.Ixabiso leebhokisi ezingenanto e-Shanghai nase-Duisburg, eJamani, linyukile ukusuka kwi-US $ 1,450 ngo-Matshi ukuya kwi-US $ 1,900 yangoku.
Umntu ophethe eli shishini leenqanawa likhankanywe ngasentla laseYunqunar uthe esona sizathu sibalulekileyo sokunyuka kwemirhumo yokurenta iikhonteyina kukuba ngenxa yongquzulwano kuLwandle oluBomvu, inani elikhulu labanini beenqanawa bajikela kwiKapa leThemba eliHle, elithe ngenxa yongquzulwano oluseLwandle oluBomvu. kubangele ukuba i-container turnover ibe yi-2-3 yeeveki ubude kunexesha eliqhelekileyo, okukhokelela kwizikhongozelo ezingenanto.Umbane uyacotha.
Iindlela zemarike yokuthumela ngenqanawa yehlabathi (ekuqaleni ukuya embindini kaMeyi) ekhutshwe yiDexun Logistics ngoMeyi 9 ibonise ukuba emva kweholide yoSuku lukaMeyi, imeko yokubonelela ngeekhonteyina ayiphucukanga kakhulu.Kukho imigangatho eyahluka-hlukeneyo yokunqongophala kwezikhongozeli, ingakumbi izikhongozeli ezikhulu nezinde, kwaye ezinye iinkampani zokuthumela ngenqanawa ziyaqhubeka nokomeleza ulawulo lokusetyenziswa kwezikhongozeli kwiindlela zaseLatin America.Izikhongozeli ezitsha ezenziwe eTshayina zibhukishwe phambi kokuphela kukaJuni.
Ngo-2021, ichatshazelwe sisibetho se-COVID-19, imakethi yorhwebo lwangaphandle “yehlile yaqala yaphakama”, kwaye ikhonkco lezinto ezithunyelwa kumazwe ngamazwe lafumana uthotho lwamazwe agqithileyo ebengalindelekanga.Ukubuya kwee-container ezisasazeke kwihlabathi jikelele akuhambanga kakuhle, kwaye ukuhanjiswa kweekhonteyina kwihlabathi akulingani ngokumandla.Inani elikhulu lezikhongozeli ezingenanto zisemva e-United States, eYurophu, e-Australia nakwezinye iindawo, kwaye ilizwe lam linqongophele kwizikhongozeli zokuthumela ngaphandle.Ke ngoko, iinkampani zeekhonteyina zigcwele iiodolo kwaye zinamandla okuvelisa ngokupheleleyo.Kwada kwaba sekupheleni kuka-2021 apho ukunqongophala kweebhokisi kwancipha.
Ngophuculo lonikezelo lweekhonteyina kunye nokufunyanwa kokusebenza kakuhle kwimarike yokuthumela ngenqanawa yehlabathi, bekukho ukusilela okugqithileyo kweekhonteyina ezingenanto kwimarike yasekhaya ukusuka ngo-2022 ukuya ku-2023, de kwabakho ukunqongophala kweekhonteyina kwakhona kulo nyaka.
Amaxabiso othutho angaqhubeka nokunyuka
Ngokumalunga nezizathu zokunyuka ngokukhawuleza kwamaxabiso omthwalo, umntu ophethe ishishini lokuthutha elikhankanywe ngasentla le-YQN lihlalutye kwiintatheli ukuba okokuqala, i-United States iye yaphela ngokusisiseko kwisigaba sokutshatyalaliswa kwaye yangena kwinqanaba lokubuyisela.Umthamo womthamo wezothutho wendlela enqumla kwiPasifiki uye wachacha ngokuthe ngcembe, nto leyo ethe yanyusa izinga loThutho.Okwesibini, ukunqanda uhlengahlengiso lwerhafu olunokwenzeka yi-United States, iinkampani eziya kwimarike yase-US ziye zathatha ithuba kwimakethi yaseLatin America, kubandakanya neshishini lokuvelisa iimoto, ishishini leziseko zophuhliso, njl.njl., kwaye badlulisele imigca yabo yemveliso kwiLatin America. , okukhokelela kugqabhuko-dubulo olukhulu lwemfuno yeendlela zaseLatin America.Iinkampani ezininzi zeenqanawa Iindlela eziya eMexico zongezwa ukuhlangabezana nemfuno eyongeziweyo.Okwesithathu, imeko yoLwandle oluBomvu ibangele ukunqongophala kobutyebi kwiindlela zaseYurophu.Ukusuka kwiindawo zokuthumela ngenqanawa ukuya kwizikhongozeli ezingenanto, amaxabiso othutho aseYurophu nawo ayenyuka.Okwesine, ixesha eliphezulu lorhwebo lwemveli lwamazwe ngamazwe lingaphambili kunakwiminyaka edlulileyo.Ngokwesiqhelo uJuni ngonyaka ngamnye ungena kwixesha lokuthengisa lasehlotyeni laphesheya, kwaye amaxabiso omthwalo aya kunyuka ngokufanelekileyo.Amaxabiso othutho kulo nyaka anyuke kwinyanga enye ngaphambili kunakwiminyaka edlulileyo, nto leyo ethetha ukuba ixesha lokuthengisa eliphambili kulo nyaka lifike kwangethuba.
I-Zheshang Securities ikhuphe ingxelo yophando nge-11 kaMeyi enesihloko esithi "Indlela yokujonga ukunyanzeliswa kwamva nje kwe-counterintuitive kumaxabiso okuhambisa iikhonteyina?"Yachaza ukuba ungquzulwano oluthatha ixesha elide kuLwandle oluBomvu lukhokelele kuxinzelelo lwekhonkco lokubonelela.Kwelinye icala, ukujikwa kwenqanawa kukhokelele ekwandeni kwemigama yokuthumela ngenqanawa., Kwelinye icala, ukwehla kokusebenza kakuhle kweenqanawa kukhokelele ekugudleni kwesikhongozeli esingqongqo kumazibuko, oko kuqhubela phambili uxinezeleko lwekhonkco lonikezelo.Ukongeza, umda wecala lemfuno uyaphucuka, idatha ye-macroeconomic eYurophu nase-United States iphucuka kancinci, kwaye idityaniswa nolindelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso empahla ngexesha lexesha eliphakamileyo, abanini bempahla bagcina kwangaphambili.Ngaphezu koko, umgca wase-US ungene kwixesha elinzima lokusayina izivumelwano zexesha elide, kwaye iinkampani zokuthumela iinqanawa zinomdla wokunyusa amaxabiso.
Kwangaxeshanye, ingxelo yophando ikholelwa ukuba ipateni ephezulu yoxinaniso kunye nomanyano lweshishini kwishishini lokuthumela ngenqanawa zenze amandla okuqhuba ukonyusa amaxabiso.I-Zheshang Securities yathi iinkampani ze-container zangaphandle zinezinga eliphezulu lokugxila.Ukusukela nge-10 kaMeyi, 2024, iinkampani ezilishumi eziphezulu ze-container liner zibalelwa kwi-84.2% yomthamo wothutho.Ukongeza, umanyano lweshishini kunye nentsebenziswano zenziwe phakathi kweenkampani.Kwelinye icala, kumxholo wokuwohloka konikezelo kunye nemfuno yendawo engqongileyo, kuyanceda ukucothisa ukhuphiswano lwexabiso elibi ngokumisa iiseyile kunye nokulawula umthamo wezothutho.Kwelinye icala, kumxholo wophuculo lonikezelo kunye nobudlelwane bemfuno, kulindeleke ukuba kuphunyezwe amaxabiso aphezulu othutho ngokunyuka kwamaxabiso adibeneyo.
Ukusukela ngoNovemba ka-2023, imikhosi exhobileyo yaseYemen yaseHouthi ihlasele ngokuphindaphindiweyo iinqanawa kuLwandle oluBomvu nakumanzi akufuphi.Iingxilimbela ezininzi zeenqanawa ehlabathini lonke azikhange zibe nandlela yimbi ngaphandle kokunqumamisa ukuhamba kweenqanawa zazo kuLwandle Olubomvu nakumanzi akufuphi nalo zize zitshintshe iindlela ezijikeleze iCape of Good Hope eAfrika.Kulo nyaka, imeko yoLwandle oluBomvu isakhula, kwaye i-arteries yokuthutha ivaliwe, ngakumbi i-Asia-Europe supply chain, echaphazelekayo kakhulu.
Ngokuphathelele kwikamva lemarike yokuthumela iikhonteyina, i-Dexun Logistics ithe ngokujonga imeko yangoku, amaxabiso omthwalo aya kuhlala omelele kwixesha elizayo elingekude, kwaye iinkampani zokuthumela ngenqanawa sele zicwangcisa umjikelo omtsha wokunyuka kwesantya somthwalo.
“Amaxabiso othutho kwiibhokisi aza kuqhubeka nokunyuka kwixesha elizayo.Okokuqala, ixesha lokuthengisa eliqhelekileyo phesheya lisaqhuba, kwaye iiOlimpiki ziya kubanjelwa eYurophu ngoJulayi kulo nyaka, ezinokunyusa izinga lomthwalo;okwesibini, i-destocking eYurophu kunye ne-United States iphelile ngokusisiseko, kunye neentengiso zasekhaya e-United States Kwakhona rhoqo iphakamisa ukulindela kwayo kuphuhliso loshishino lwentengiso yelizwe.Ngenxa yokunyuka kwemfuno kunye nomthamo oqinileyo wokuthumela, amaxabiso omthwalo kulindeleke ukuba aqhubeke nokunyuka ngexesha elifutshane, "utshilo umthombo weYunqunar okhankanywe ngasentla.
Ixesha lokuposa: May-17-2024
